3 House retirements spur debate on whether Republicans are losing momentum

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A trio of House Republican retirement announcements over the past 10 days have sparked a debate between the leaders of the two major parties over whether the GOP is losing momentum in its quest to score major gains at the ballot box this fall.

With the three latest lawmakers choosing not to seek reelection in November, Republicans will have to defend 18 open seats and Democrats 14. The raw numbers contradict the conventional wisdom that Democrats would head for the sidelines after GOP Sen. Scott Brown's special election victory Jan. 19 in Massachusetts.



GOP strategists are brushing aside the retirement gap, saying that many of their House members see an improving political environment and are jumping ship to run for statewide office, and that other retirements are occuring in mostly conservative terrain that will be easy to defend. Democrats counter that the GOP retirements are a sign that most rank-and-file Republicans do not believe they will recapture the majority anytime soon.

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (Tex.) said that "not all retirements are created equal," adding that Democratic retirements are coming in far less friendly territory for the majority. "The fact of the matter is Democrats in swing districts are retiring because they know what November has in store for them," Sessions said.


"The fact that you have 10 percent of House Republicans retiring suggests they don't believe their own hype about taking back the House," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "If that was a realistic prospect, people would be running for office, not from it."

Leaving the House


On Thursday, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) became the latest casualty, announcing that he would not seek a 10th term in his Miami area seat. Less than 24 hours earlier, Rep. Vernon J. Ehlers (R-Mich.) had decided not to run again, and, late last month, Rep. Steve Buyer (Ind.) also called it quits. (Technically, Democrats could make the argument that there have been 19 GOP retirements because Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) is moving into his brother's neighboring district and running for that seat. That leaves the southwestern Florida district, which is viewed as a more ripe target for Democrats.)


At this early stage of the campaign season, independent political handicappers Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg predict Democratic losses of at least 20 seats, putting Republicans halfway to the 40 they need to take back the majority. The ripest targets are often seats left behind by incumbents, and a look at the 31 open seats does suggest that Democrats are likely to be harder hit by the retirements.


Of the 14 Democratic open seats, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)carried five in the 2008 race for the White House and lost one -- Kansas's 3rd District -- narrowly. Of the 18 Republican-held seats, President Obama won two and came close in the districts held by Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart around Miami.


Seeking higher office

Two-thirds of the GOP retirees, 12, are running for higher office, a sign, party strategists say, that Republicans view their party as ascendant and are leaping at opportunities.


In addition, the most recent retirees -- Buyer, Diaz-Balart, Ehlers -- are veterans whose upward mobility is limited in the House. Buyer, who faces ethics questions from his home-state media about a foundation he operates, is at the end of his term limit as the top Republican on the Veterans' Affairs Committee. Ehlers recently gave up his top post on the House Administration Committee. Lincoln Diaz-Balart is a senior member of the powerful Rules Committee, which governs much of the business of the House, but that position is selected by Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio), who has two close allies on that panel who are viewed as more likely to become chairman if Republicans reclaim the majority.


Watching every seat

Still, Republicans would rather not have to deal with open seats. Modern political history suggests that open seats are far more likely to switch parties than those in which the incumbent is running for reelection -- meaning that any vacant seat has at least the potential to become competitive.

"In this environment, every open seat has to be watched, and there will be GOP open seats where the NRCC will have to spend money they wouldn't have had to if the incumbent had run for reelection," said Carl Forti, a Republican consultant and former communications director for the House GOP's campaign arm. "This will take away from what they have to spend on offensive opportunities."



Although Republicans are on a winning streak after Brown's victory and the seizure of the New Jersey and Virginia governors' offices in November, the party continues to face a deficit when compared with Democratic finances. At the end of January, the NRCC had $4.1 million in the bank after posting more than $4.5 million raised last month. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, by contrast, had $16.7 million on hand at the end of 2009. The DCCC has not released its January figures.

In addition, some Republican primaries have turned bitter, with the burgeoning tea party movement viewing these open seats as a chance to flex its muscle against candidates whom it considers establishment-backed. It's unclear whether such outsider conservatives will emerge in the South Florida primaries, but the tea party allies have adopted former Florida state House speaker Marco Rubio as a favorite son in his insurgent Senate primary against Gov. Charlie Crist (Fla.).

Patrick Kennedy won't run for re-election

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Rhode Island Democratic Rep. Patrick Kennedy will retire after eight terms in office, bringing an end to his House career just months after his father, legendary Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy, passed away.


"My father instilled in me a deep commitment to public service," Kennedy said in a video announcing his retirement. "Now having spent two decades in politics, my life has taken a new direction and I will not be a candidate for re-election this year."

Kennedy has easily held Rhode Island's 1st district since 1994 despite the occasional attempt by Republicans to knock him off.

Kennedy's time in Congress was decidedly uneven. He was rumored to be planning a Senate bid in 2000 but decided against running. He was tasked with chairing the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in that same cycle with expectations within the party that they would seize back control of the House. It didn't happen.

After his stint at the DCCC, Kennedy took on a far less high-profile role in Congress -- emerging only infrequently and not always in the best light. In the spring of 2006 Kennedy crashed his car into a police barricade near Capitol Hill; he entered rehab for addiction and depression days later. Over the summer, Kennedy admitted himself to a rehabilitation facility again.

Patrick Kennedy's retirement means that for the first time in nearly five decades there will not be a member of the Kennedy family in Congress. His father, who served Massachusetts in the Senate for more than four decades, died on August 25.

Kennedy's seat, which includes the northeastern reaches of the state, is strongly Democratic. President Barack Obama won the seat by 32 points in 2008 while Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) carried it by 26 points in 2004.

Among the Democrats mentioned as possible Kennedy replacements include: Providence Mayor David Cicilline, Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts and state party chairman Bill Lynch.

State Rep. John Loughlin was already in the race on the Republican side.

Kennedy is the 14th Democrat to announce his retirement plans this cycle. Eighteen Republicans are retiring while Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart is giving up his 25th district seat to run in for the 21st district being vacated by his brother -- retiring Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart.

Beyonce, Madonna Join Haiti Telethon

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AP) Beyonce and Madonna have been added as performers to Friday's multi-network "Hope for Haiti Now" telethon, and Denzel Washington, Brad Pitt, Leonardo DiCaprio and former President Bill Clinton are among the participants.

A statement released Thursday said Beyonce would perform from London, and Madonna from New York City. The list of musical performers already includes such heavyweights as Bruce Springsteen, Alicia Keys, Stevie Wonder, Taylor Swift, Justin Timberlake and Keith Urban.

Complete Coverage: Devastation in Haiti
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"It's a big world out there, and we all have a lot of responsibility to look out for people who can't look out for themselves," telethon organizer George Clooney said in an MTV interview that aired Thursday night. "So what we can do is first and foremost, raise money. Period. That's it ...

"If I thought we could all pick up shovels and go in there and help without being in the way, I think a lot of people would do that."

An estimated 200,000 people were killed after a powerful earthquake struck Haiti last week, devastating the nation.

The two-hour telethon will be shown on all the major networks and a host of other channels. It will be broadcast from New York, London, Los Angeles and Haiti.

People can begin donating even before the start of the 8 p.m. EST concert via phone and text. Viewers can also download musical performances from the show via iTunes for 99 cents. Those profits will also be donated to Haiti relief.

Also Thursday, DiCaprio announced he was donating $1 million to the Clinton-Bush Haiti Fund, the relief effort led by former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush and one of the organizations benefiting from the telethon.

Obama to Offer Aid for Families in State of the Union Address

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WASHINGTON — President Obama will propose in his State of the Union address a package of modest initiatives intended to help middle-class families, including tax credits for child care, caps on some student loan payments and a requirement that companies let workers save automatically for retirement, senior administration officials said Sunday.

By focusing on what one White House official calls “the sandwich generation” — struggling families squeezed between sending their children to college and caring for elderly parents — Mr. Obama hopes to use his speech on Wednesday to demonstrate that he understands the economic pain of ordinary Americans. The proposals also include expanded tax credits for retirement savings and money for programs to help families care for elderly relatives.

The address is still being written, but one senior official, describing it on the condition of anonymity, said its main themes would include “creating good jobs, addressing the deficit, helping the middle class and changing Washington.”

With his poll numbers down and Democrats fearing disaster in this year’s midterm elections, Mr. Obama is at a particularly rocky point in his presidency and has been shifting his rhetoric lately to adopt a more populist tone. He heads into his first formal State of the Union speech in a radically reshaped political climate from even one week ago.

His top domestic priority, a health care overhaul, is in jeopardy after the Republican victory in last week’s Massachusetts Senate race — a setback that White House advisers interpret as a reflection of Americans’ deep anger and frustration over high unemployment and Wall Street bailouts.

One advantage of the president’s proposals is that they might appeal to people who are struggling financially without looking like the kind of broad expansion of the federal government that is making many Americans uneasy. They also would add little to the federal deficit at a time when Mr. Obama is pledging to reduce it.

Mr. Obama and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. plan to outline the proposals on Monday when they meet with the White House task force that has spent the past year examining ways to help the middle class.

While Mr. Obama has been shifting his focus toward job creation in recent weeks, an official said the president also wanted to spotlight what the White House regards as “critical areas where middle-class families need a helping hand to get ahead,” like paying for college and saving for retirement.

For example, the president is calling on Congress to nearly double the child care tax credit for families earning less than $85,000 — a proposal that, if adopted, would lower by $900 the taxes such families owe to the government. But the credit would not be refundable, meaning that families would not get extra money back on a tax refund.

Another of the president’s proposals, a cap on federal loan payments for recent college graduates at 10 percent of income above a basic living allowance, would cost taxpayers roughly $1 billion. The expanded financing to help families care for elderly relatives would cost $102.5 million — a pittance in a federal budget where programs are often measured in tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars. And the automatic paycheck deduction program would simply be a way to encourage workers to save, and would include tax credits to help companies with administrative costs.

Such programs are, notably, much less far-reaching than Mr. Obama’s expansive first-year agenda of passing an economic recovery package, bailing out the auto industry, overhauling the health care system, passing energy legislation and imposing tough new restrictions on banks. That agenda has left him vulnerable to criticism that he is using the government to remake every aspect of American society.

Top advisers to the president insist that Mr. Obama is not in retreat and are resisting any comparisons to the kind of small-bore initiatives that the last Democratic president, Bill Clinton, used to try to get his presidency back on track.

“In no way does this represent a trimming of the sails,” one adviser said on Sunday, referring to the package.

Instead, the White House wants to use Wednesday’s address to explain how initiatives like the health care overhaul fit into his broader plan for job creation and the economy. On Sunday, as senior administration officials fanned out on the television talk shows, David Axelrod, Mr. Obama’s senior adviser, insisted that the health care bill was not dead. But he did suggest that the administration was now more focused on changing insurance practices than on a broad expansion of coverage to the uninsured.

“There are so many elements of this — tax breaks for small business, extending the life of Medicare, more assistance for seniors with their prescription drugs, a cap on out-of-pocket expenses, help for people with pre-existing conditions — that are too important to walk away from,” Mr. Axelrod said on the ABC program “This Week.”

With House and Senate leaders trying to figure out how to proceed legislatively, Mr. Axelrod also issued a warning to Democrats who were reconsidering their support for the health care measure.

“As a political matter, the foolish thing to do would be for anybody else who supported this to walk away from it,” he said. He added, “The underlying elements of it are popular and important, and people will never know what’s in that bill until we pass it, the president signs it and they have a whole new range of protections they never had before.”

How Mr. Obama will address health care in the State of the Union speech, though, remains an open question. Officials on Capitol Hill and at the White House said their talks on how to proceed with the legislation might not be resolved by Wednesday. This could put Mr. Obama in the awkward position of talking about a measure that is on shaky ground.

Another open question is what the president will say about his program for job creation.

The House of Representatives has passed a $154 billion bill to encourage job creation, and during an appearance in Ohio on Friday, Mr. Obama called for a jobs bill that would include tax breaks for small businesses and for people who make their homes more energy efficient. White House officials have not said what Mr. Obama’s jobs bill would cost, and they did not say on Sunday if he would mention a specific amount in Wednesday’s address.

But they did try to hit hard on the jobs theme. And Mr. Axelrod, speaking on “State of the Union” on CNN, said Mr. Obama’s current predicament was no surprise.

“A year ago, I said to the president, ‘A year from now, your numbers are going to be much different than they are right now because of the economic forecast that we were hearing,’ ” he said. “And we knew that even as the economy started growing, it would take time for the jobs to follow.”